Iowa Loosing Its Influence?

The Wall Street Journal has an article up today about how the front loading of the primary schedule will dilute Iowa's influence. Even though much has been written on this subject, this article takes a different approach, focusing more on early voters and how campaigns will need to target them long before the state's caucus/primary.

Christopher Cooper, the author, makes several good points. Campaigns will be able to lock up votes before the caucus and primaries begin that can lessen any poor showing in earlier states. He also writes that candidates will also spend more time in these states to influence these early voters. Finally, there is the money thing. Sending out mailers to everyone who requests an absentee ballot will require a lot of money. This won't bother the larger campaigns, but can hurt smaller ones.

My only problem with this is what are the early voter rates in these states? Cooper writes that 47% of voters in the 2006 primary were absentee votes. That's a large percentage, however California also has a program that automatically sends out absentee ballots to those who request that service. He doesn't cite rates in other states. Aside from California, will the number of early votes provide a real potential to offset primary day voters?

Of course there is another question that needs to be addressed----should there even be early voting for primaries and caucuses? Unlike a general election, primaries feature several candidates, many of whom are operating on very limited budgets and may not be doing well in polls. What were to happen if a candidate drops out of the race after ballots are sent out? Anyone who voted for that candidate would effectively loose their vote. Granted, the likely hood of this so close to voting day is low, but it's still a question that should be addressed.

I don't think that Iowa's or New Hampshire's influence will be diluted with the front loaded schedule. If anything, it will make these states more important. A win or good finish in these two states will provide much momentum for that campaign into the future races. That candidate will also be on every news show for the next week---millions of dollars in earned media. The creation of Super Tuesday was supposed to dilute early state influence, but as we have seen, it only influenced them.

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