When we speak of "clearing" an enemy safe haven, we are not talking about destroying the enemy in it; we are talking about rescuing the population in it from enemy intimidation. If we don't get every enemy cell in the initial operation, that's OK. The point of the operations is to lift the pall of fear from population groups that have been intimidated and exploited by terrorists to date, then win them over and work with them in partnership to clean out the cells that remain – as has happened in Al Anbar Province and can happen elsewhere in Iraq as well.
The "terrain" we are clearing is human terrain, not physical terrain. It is about marginalizing al Qa’ida, Shi’a extremist militias, and the other terrorist groups from the population they prey on. This is why claims that “80% of AQ leadership have fled” don’t overly disturb us: the aim is not to kill every last AQ leader, but rather to drive them off the population and keep them off, so that we can work with the community to prevent their return.
This is not some sort of kind-hearted, soft approach, as some fire-breathing polemicists have claimed (funnily enough, those who urge us to “just kill more bad guys” usually do so from a safe distance). It is not about being “nice” to the population and hoping they will somehow see us as the “good guys” and stop supporting insurgents. On the contrary, it is based on a hard-headed recognition of certain basic facts,
He then goes on to list the various facts. Kilcullen is a smart guy, as this bio at wikipedia shows.
There is a good article by Jim Michaels at USA Today about what is happening with the surge. Michaels outlines both what is going well and not well. The combat post that Michaels writes about was established in January when the area was finding 15 bodies a day. "Now," said the commander, Cpt Kevin Joyce, "we have a bad day (when we) find one." Residents come out at night to eat ice cream at a local shop, and vendors are also out selling food. US troops drive down the streets handing out food to citizens, and Michaels quote a soldier saying "If we were doing this (last) February, we'd be getting shot at." US troops are taking census data to keep people out of the area who shouldn't be there. While there are still complaints about the Iraqi army, both from US forces and citizens, US presence has bolstered their confidence and are learning from the interactions.
The downside though, is that US causalities have increased, and Gen. Ray Odierno, the #2 guy in Iraq, confirmed that while attacks on civilians are down, attacks on US forces have increased. Odierno also said that it will ultimately come down to "political and diplomatic progress." There are still sectarian fighting and squabbles to be taken care of, but US forces are doing their best to get Sunnis and Shiites to talk things out.
Finally, Mario Loyola at NRO has a piece up about the positive things occurring in Iraq. While eventually every surge must recede, he thinks, based on a report from the Pentagon on stability and security in the country, that the Iraqis are more capable of standing on their own than some people may lead you to believe. Thanks to the actions of Prime Minister Maliki and Iraqi forces, the recent bombing that brought down the twin minarets at the mosque in Samarra didn't revive the violence that occurred when the site was first bombed two years ago. Provincial recovery teams are located throughout the country to provide help when and where needed and US advisers are located throughout the government preparing officials for supporting themselves. The government has been able to eliminate a $2.6 billion program to import refined fuel for the country, and the current budget has $10 billion to continue projects previously funded by the US. Security has improved as well, with US forces and Iraqi army and police forces banding together to go after Al-Qaeda forces and then remain in the area to provide security for the residents. The improved security has in turn helped improve and increase information as residents no longer fear Al-Qaeda revenge.
Of course, as Loyola also points out, there is work to be done, primarily politically. Seven of the 18 benchmarks recently set by Congress are political and have yet to be met. This includes energy resources, de-Bathification, provincial elections, and so on. Advances will have to be made on these issues by September, when Congress will revisit the funding issue.
There is talk that the administration is planning on drawing down troops later this year. Whether that will happen or what it will look like will depend on what happens between now and then.
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