Straw Poll Analysis

While a few day late, Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has a piece up about the Ames Straw Poll and looks at each candidate and what must happen for them. It's a good analysis.

First, the straw poll is a showing of organization on who can get the most supporters there. This requires at the very least several weeks, but more like several months, to find supporters, organize transportation all across the state, organizing all of the tent activities, and so on. If you read the Des Moines Register story on Sara Taylor this morning, you read about how she went around to biker bars signing up people to ride their Harley's to the straw poll for George W Bush. While it recently came out that he is scaling back his straw poll organization, Romney's campaign has been doing quite a bit of phone calling in the last month or so finding supporters. Other campaigns are starting to tour the state, and enlisting the help of supporters who attend their events.

With Mitt Romney the only one of the "front runners" participating, it'll be a contest of the second-tier candidates. I'm looking at the straw poll as creating a wild card entry into the top tier, particularly if the candidate is not to well known. The candidate will have quite a bit of free media to broadcast his message, and voters across the state and country will probably check him out more. Of course, it'll be up to the candidate to take full advantage of this.

The big questions I have:

--Which candidate will beat expectations? A candidate won't necessarily need to win the poll if they can do better than expected (yes, I know, that pretty much covers every candidate). For example, if say John Cox or Tommy Thompson, two candidates who receive scant media coverage, can finish a strong second or third, it will benefit their campaign immensely. A similar question is will any candidate fail to meet expectations? Mitt Romney is the odds on favorite to win, and it appears that Brownback is starting to catch on with a lot of people. If Romney fails to win or doesn't win by a sizable amount, or if Brownback doesn't finish well, it won't be good for them and they'll have their work cut out for them till January.

--How will Fred Thompson do? He's on the ballot, and it appears he won't be contesting the poll as he probably won't announce until after Labor Day. If he doesn't do well, it won't matter much because he didn't contest it. If he does do well though, it'll add more to his developing campaign.

--What candidates will drop out if they have a poor showing? Huckabee and Tommy Thompson have laid it all on the line; Huckabee says he needs to finish third or better, Thompson says second or better. Tancredo, it appears, will probably drop his bid if he doesn't finish at least fifth. In the back of my mind, 5th place was the cut off point, but it will ultimately depend on the candidate and how they feel they need to do. Elizabeth Dole finished 3rd in 2000, about 1,500 votes behind Steve Forbes and a good 1,300 votes ahead of Gary Bauer, and still dropped out. Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander finished 5th and 6th, respectively, and dropped out, however, Alan Keys and Orin Hatch, finishing 7th and 9th, respectively, stayed on till the caucus.

--How will Ron Paul finish. This might strike some people as an odd question, but if you pay attention to the political internet world, you'll know why I ask. He's been getting a lot of media coverage lately, his followers patrol the internet forums, blogs and comment sections for any opportunity to get Paul's message out there. Then, Patrick Ruffini last week predicted that Paul will finish second, based a lot on the fact he had 1,400 people attend his rally after the ICA candidate forum on June 30th. The only thing is that you must be an Iowa resident to vote at the straw poll, and I have no idea on what Paul's grassroots strength is in the state. That's why I'm interested.

--And finally, How many people will turn out for the event, and what kinds of, if any, problems will show up? Originally, the Republican Party of Iowa was estimating up to 50,000 people before Giuliani and McCain dropped out. Now the guesstimates are between 30,000 and 40,000. This is a big fund raiser for the party, and the more tickets sold, the better for the party's bank account. As for the problems, no event goes off without a hitch, especially one of this size. A major complaint at the 2000 straw poll was that because more people showed up than expected, the voting process left a lot of people in line for quite a while. It sounds like RPI has fixed this, and if the event can go off with few and little problems, it will be a great boost for the state party.
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Outright Disgusting

You probably remember the case of the "Flying Imams" in Minneapolis in November. Six Imams, during the boarding of a US Airways flight, passengers observed them making suspecious movements, including asking for seatbelt extenders when they obviously didn't need them, changing seats, and making anti-American statements. The Imams were removed from the flight, and proceeded to sue the "John Does"--the passengers who reported the movements to flight authorities.

This led Rep. Peter King (R-NY) to bring forth a legislation in the House that would prevent passengers from being sued for reporting suspicious activities. In effect, it would be a Good Samaritan law, like those which protect people from trying to render aid to another person. King rightly saw that the threat of suing those who speak up would be used to quiet the public and thus put transportation passengers in much greater risk.

The amendment passed the House overwhelmingly--by a vote of 304-21. Case closed, right?

Wrong. Today, House Democrats left out the amendment in the Homeland Security Bill. The Democrat Congress voted for legislation that protects US citizens from litigation for alerting authorities to suspicious activity, and then found a convenient technicality to throw it out. It's exactly as John Hinderaker at Powerline Blog says, Democrats can go home and say they voted for this and be technically correct. However, if there is no outrage from those who voted for this, then the voters need to be reminded of it. This move does nothing to increase our national security. In effect, it diminishes it. If American citizens are too worried about being sued to report suspicious activity, that gives terrorist a free hand to do what they please.

This is pathetic and outright disgusting. Democrats are trying to portray themselves as strong on defense, but you can't take them seriously after this stunt.

The Washington Times story reports that Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has said she will try to insert a similiar amendment to an education bill pending in the Senate, and that Rep. King is in talks with Sen. Joe Lieberman to get the amendment slipped into the conference bill. Keep your fingers crossed.

More commentary and/or links at The Corner, and Captain's Quarters, and Powerline.

UPDATE: Michelle Malkin reports that Sen. Collins move tonight just failed, 57-39, missing cloture by 3 votes thanks to some last minute Democrat arm twisting. The link includes a lot of coverage on the topic, including the roll call of tonights vote. Grassley voted for it , HARKIN VOTED AGAINST IT. As for the presidential candidates--voting "Yes" was Clinton and McCain. Voting "No" was Dodd and Biden. Those who did not vote were Brownback and Obama.

As Malkin points out, we still have the conference report.

UPDATE #2: Andy McCarthy at The Corner has more coverage on the event. He makes a good point with this: "If the state subpoenas you for information, you are compelled to provide it to the authorities whether you want to or not; but if you want to provide it voluntarily in order to protect your community, the Democrats say, 'prepare to be sued.'"

Debra Berlingame has an opinion piece up at DailyNews.net on the story.

Also, Audrey Hudson at the Washington Times, who first reported this story, is now reporting that a parliamentarian ruled that the amendment can be added to the legislation as it fits into the scope of it. Democrats are only allowing 3-4 amendments to be added, so it remains to be seen if King's amendment will be one of those.
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Reaction to Harkin's "No Sleep Until We Retreat" Speech

National Review Online had an article today by Mark Hemingway, writing about his experience watching the "No Sleep Until We Retreat" debate in the Senate the other night. Hemingway mentions Tom Harkin, at the 1:09 and 1:15am entries. Those entries, like the whole article, are pretty funny, so check it out.

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Tancredo in Fort Dodge

In continuance of the pre-Iowa Straw Poll candidate visits, Tom Tancredo came to the headquarters in Fort Dodge Monday night (July 16th). The Messenger doesn't have an online article, but there was a story in the paper edition on Tuesday.

The event drew, by our account, somewhere between 120 and 130 people. We're not sure if we've ever had that many people in the headquarters before, but if we have, it has certainly been a while. Even though we brought in extra chairs, seating was at a premium, and a good portion of the attendees had to stand. Outside, the campaign had parked a moving truck they had covered with Tancredo signs, which I heard they were driving around Fort Dodge during the afternoon.

I wasn't able to hear the whole speech, so I can't recap what he said ( I can tell you he did talk about immigration), but I did hear the audience applause several times. There were some questions about how many came just for the free food, but the reactions Tancredo received showed it couldn't have been many. I overheard several inquiries about the Iowa Straw Poll, and a few for yard signs.

One of the impressions left on several people I talked with afterwards is that immigration is going to be a big issue this election. Judging by what I heard from people coming up to talk with Tancred both before and after he spoke, that was the big reason they came. It would be smart for Republicans to at least look at making immigration one of its main issues this election.

All in all, it was a good event for the Tancredo campaign. Word is he'll be back in the area toward the end of the month, so keep visiting this blog as well as our website (www.webcorep.com).

UPDATE: Tancredo's blog has a couple photos of the event up.

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Presidential Candidate Contact Information

Here is a list of contact information for our Republican presidential candidates. Unless I did not have such information, I used the candidate's Iowa office contact information, and also listed the specific Iowa page on the candidates website if one existed. This information will be updated and changed as needed.

Sam Brownback
www.brownback.com
526 Main Street
Ames, Ia.

John Cox
www.cox2008.com
815 Office Park Road
West Des Moines, Iowa 50265

Rudy Giuliani
www.joinrudy2008.com
Campaign headquarters address:
295 Greenwich St., No. 371
New York, N.Y. 10007
212-835-9449

Mike Huckabee
www.mikehuckabee.com
(Iowa page) http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=IowaHQ.Home
P.O. Box 200
Little Rock, Ark. 72203
501-324-2008

Duncan Hunter
www.gohunter08.com
Hunter for President Inc.
9340 Fuerte Drive, Suite 302
La Mesa, Calif. 91941
619-463-3896

John McCain
www.johnmccain.com
(Iowa site) http://iowa.johnmccain.com/
2335 70th Street
Urbandale, IA 50322

Mitt Romney
www.mittromney.com
3590 109th St.
Urbandale, Iowa

Tom Tancredo
http://www.teamtancredo.com/
Suite 102
217 Welch Avenue
Ames, IA 50014
Phone: (515) 268-3341
Fax: (515) 268-3347

Tommy Thompson
www.tommy2008.com
(Iowa Page) http://www.tommy2008.com/Tommy_Across_Iowa.aspx
10544 Justin Drive
Urbandale, IA 50322
515-422-5100
iowa@tommy2008.com

Huckabee Visits Fort Dodge

Mike Huckabee stopped at the GOP Headquarters to speak with about 40 people on Saturday afternoon. Here is a story on the event from The Messenger. There are photos taken by the paper here.

Huckabee is the former governor of Arkansas, originally from the town Hope. That, you'll remember, is the same place Bill Clinton is from. Huckabee brought Bob Vander Plaats with him. Vander Plaats was the Lieutenant Governor nominee last year, and is currently Huckabee's state chair.

Huckabee ran a little late (it's a rare politician who doesn't), and apologized for his tardiness. He mentioned that he was speeding to get over here and luckily the state patrol wasn't on the road. An audience member shouted "that's because he's in here" (which was true, though he was off duty). Huckabee's face blanked out briefly, the quickly replied that he wasn't driving and he didn't even know what vehicle he was in.

Huckabee touched on several topics, including the Fair Tax, changes needed in the health care system, and foreign policy. The attendees seemed impressed with the former governor and what he had to say.

Huckabee asked everyone to come to the Iowa Straw Poll on August 11th, and support him. He promised that at his tent, it would be 68 degrees with no humidity. If you're interested in attending the straw poll with Gov. Huckabee, contact his campaign, it looks like you can use this page to sign up.

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It's Time to Disengage from Congress

Tonight, the US House of Representatives voted for defeat. On a party line vote of 223-201, the House approved a measure to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 180 days and to be completely out by April 1st, 2008 (April Fools Day, oddly enough).

Petraeus hasn't even given his September report. The full component of troops for the surge just arrived in the country. They have been engaging Al Qaeda, as Michael Yon has reported on. Tribes previously allied with AQ have turned and joined us. We are gaining more intelligence because the local populace feels more secure and doesn't fear for their lives in giving that information. And through this engagement, we have found how sickening these terrorists are, and what we are truly facing in this war. Iraqi troops found mass graves filled with the bodies of Al Qaeda victims. Yon reported on a story of an 11 year old boy baked...BAKED... and served to his parents because that young boy's parents had somehow crossed Al Qaeda.

This vote came about because of a document released today stating that eight of the benchmarks for Iraq have been met. Which means, even if the press doesn't make much of it, that eight of the benchmarks have been met or are well on their way there. Bombings have decreased. Death squad kills have decreased. Civilian deaths have decreased. The benchmarks that haven't been met yet are mostly political. They haven't prepared enough for local elections. They haven't done anything on oil revenue sharing. Etc.

Now, the US House wants us to leave. Have those who voted for this bill considered what will happen if we leave? Have they considered the violence that Al Qaeda will bring to Iraq? It will make places like Lebanon look like a picnic. Iran will seek to push its hegemony in the region, and Saudi Arabia will make similar moves. The Kurds in the north will push for their own country, and Turkey will come in to prevent an independent Kurdistan, as well as to flush out PKK terrorist hiding out in the mountains of area. You think gas prices are high now? If Iran gets control, or at the very least influence, over this area, gas prices will go sky high.

Rush Limbaugh brought up the point that our..OUR..congress can't deal with our current oil problems. They haven't built any new refineries. They haven't built any new nuclear power plants. Instead, they sit around and yell about oil company profits. Al Gore and Robert F. Kennedy fly around in their private jets telling us how WE need to change our ways. How can we expect the Iraqis to quickly deal with their problems if our congress can't? Democrats are always throwing the word "hypocrisy" into conversations, so why don't we?

Rush, Mark Levin, and probably others today, have said this: Why don't we hear about benchmarks with the current congress? How is that "6 for '06" thing going? Huh? If I remember right, the only part of that plan that has been signed into law is the minimum wage. Instead, all we get is Harry Reid telling us that the war is lost even when the surge forces were still be redeployed. All we get is Speaker Pelosi going over to Syria to "meet and talk" with a government who is currently allowing terrorist to cross it's boarder and kill our troops . All we get is Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer boasting about how many Senate seats they are going to gain because of the war. All we get is Jack Murtha calling our troops murders. They call for vote after vote after vote on Iraq, and jump with glee when the "yea" votes increase. The immigration bill--the bill that the American people overwhelming opposed--had to be killed not once--BUT TWICE.

This obviously means that the Democrat controlled congress has failed to meet its benchmarks. Thus, I call for a disengagement of the American People from this Congress. It is time to bring our Representatives and Senators home before they waste any more of our hard earned tax money on doing nothing.

PS---As a final note, I hope you have all heard Sen. John McCain's speech on the Senate floor the other day about his recent trip to Iraq. You can read the text here, and I'm sure there is video of it out there somewhere. I know there are a lot of people out there who don't care for Sen. McCain, and that can be putting it mildly. I know there are people out there jumping for joy at the recent events surrounding his campaign. But you have to admire a man who is willing to stand up in the Senate and say what he said. Not as an affront to any other candidate, but Sen. McCain has been, in my opinion, the most passionate of our candidates calling out the mistakes and mismanagement that has occurred in this war, and the need for us to finish the job over there.
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